Impact of cadaveric renal transplantation on survival in patients listed for transplantation.

The aim of this study was to assess the magnitude of the survival benefit of renal transplantation compared with dialysis in patients selected for transplantation in Scotland. Longitudinal study of survival and mortality risk in all adult patients (1732) listed for a first transplant between January 1, 1989, and December 31, 1989, in Scotland. A time-dependent Cox regression analysis adjusted for comorbidity, sociodemographic and geographic factors, primary renal disease, time on dialysis, and year of listing compared the risk of death for patients receiving a first cadaveric transplant versus all patients on dialysis listed for transplantation. After adjustment for the covariates, the relative risk (RR) of death during the first 30 days after transplantation was 1.35 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63 to 2.86) compared with patients on dialysis (RR = 1). The long-term RR (at 18 mo) for the transplant recipients was 0.18 (95% CI, 0.08 to 0.42) when compared with patients on dialysis (RR = 1). This lower long-term risk of death was present in all patients undergoing transplantation, irrespective of their age group or primary renal disease. Similar results were seen when survival with a transplant was censored for graft failure. The projected life expectancy with a transplant was 17.19 yr compared with only 5.84 yr on dialysis. Despite an initial higher risk of death, long-term survival for patients who undergo transplantation is significantly better compared with patients who are listed but remain on dialysis. A successful transplant triples the life expectancy of a listed renal failure patient.